My prediction success rate was 63% (15/24), not too bad. In some ways it was a baffling year to predict. Very few of this year's candidates lit my world on fire, but there are certainly gems amongst them.
Below are the results, and some discussion about each category.
BEST PICTURE
Call Me by Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Will Win: Lady Bird
Should Win: Get Out
Did Win: The Shape of Water
For the first time in my memory, this year's best picture race presented an odd challenge: there was no obvious frontrunner. I went with Lady Bird because it's both good and inoffensive enough to eke ahead, but apparently that film lost a lot of awards steam in the weeks leading up to voting. I'm thrilled for The Shape of Water. Although it was far from my favorite movie of the year, it may be the strangest film on this list, so I consider its success a victory.
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.
Will Win: Gary Oldman
Should Win: Daniel Kaluuya
Did Win: Gary Oldman
Toss a white dude in a bunch of egregious make-up, let him scream, and ta da! you have yourself an Oscar. This was one of the most obvious predictions on the list; the heartbreaking nuance of Kaluuya's performance stood not a chance against Oldman's swaggering Churchillosity.
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Meryl Streep, The Post
Will Win: Frances McDormand
Should Win: Frances McDormand
Did Win: Frances McDormand
There's been plenty of blowback against Three Billboards, but almost all of it has been accompanied by the caveat: "all that being said, Frances McDormand did an amazing job." I'm coming to better understand the critiques of the film, but upon my first viewing it swept me up in its skillfulness, and I wonder how much of that had expressly to do with McDormand's titanic skill.
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Will Win: Sam Rockwell
Should Win: Willem Dafoe
Did Win: Sam Rockwell
I quite liked all the performances nominated, but I didn't love any of them. Dafoe's work on The Florida Project had such heart, which is refreshing to see from an actor normally typecast as a crazy nasty maniac. But Rockwell's performance was showiest, so there you are.
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
Will Win: Allison Janney
Should Win: Lesley Manville
Did Win: Allison Janney
I didn't see I, Tonya, but the only other option that made much sense for the academy to select was Metcalf, and the buzz around Janney was louder.
DIRECTOR
Dunkirk, Christopher Nolan
Get Out, Jordan Peele
Lady Bird, Greta Gerwig
Phantom Thread, Paul Thomas Anderson
The Shape of Water, Guillermo del Toro
Will Win: Christopher Nolan
Should Win: Jordan Peele/Christopher Nolan
Did Win: Guillermo del Toro
I whiffed this one, perhaps on account of wishful thinking. Del Toro's work on The Shape of Water is very, very good, but a bit wonky in places in his signature fashion. As for who actually deserved it the most, I cannot decide. Nolan's work on Dunkirk is technically the most impressive, but Peele blowing the world away with an immaculately crafted debut film is in a league of its own. I wouldn't have been mad about any of these candidates taking home the prize, to be honest. Perhaps it's no coincidence that this is also the first year in Oscars history that every Best Director candidate also wrote their film.
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
The Boss Baby
The Breadwinner
Coco
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent
Will Win: Coco
Should Win: Coco but actually The Lego Batman Movie
Did Win: Coco
I refuse to acknowledge a category that finds The Boss Baby more worthy of nomination than The Lego Batman Movie. Maybe the most inexplicable snub of the entire year.
ANIMATED SHORT
Dear Basketball
Garden Party
Lou
Negative Space
Revolting Rhymes
Will Win: Negative Space
Should Win: N/A
Did Win: Dear Basketball
I guess the Academy likes the way they dribble up and down the court.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Call Me by Your Name, James Ivory
The Disaster Artist, Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber
Logan, Scott Frank & James Mangold and Michael Green
Molly's Game, Aaron Sorkin
Mudbound, Virgil Williams and Dee Rees
Will Win: Call Me by Your Name
Should Win: Call Me by Your Name
Did Win: Call Me by Your Name
The only film of this bunch that I've actually seen is Logan, and while I am very much a Logan booster, its screenplay is far from its strongest quality.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Big Sick, Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani
Get Out, Jordan Peele
Lady Bird, Greta Gerwig
The Shape of Water, Guillermo del Toro, Vanessa Taylor
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Martin McDonagh
Will Win: Get Out
Should Win: Get Out
Did Win: Get Out
The structure of The Big Sick is brilliant, and in my eyes singlehandedly reinvigorates the romantic comedy genre. But Get Out is a world class screenplay. They could teach it in schools. As a horror/thriller/satire it must walk a lot of tightropes, and it does so with aplomb. I wouldn't have thought a genre movie that so masterfully critiques race relations in America could be enjoyed by so many, but Peele manages to please and provoke, sometimes with the same flourish.
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Blade Runner 2049, Roger Deakins
Darkest Hour, Bruno Delbonnel
Dunkirk, Hoyte van Hoytema
Mudbound, Rachel Morrison
The Shape of Water, Dan Lausten
Will Win: Blade Runner 2049
Should Win: Dunkirk
Did Win: Blade Runner 2049
The cinematography of Blade Runner 2049 is astounding and very much deserves every accolade. I just give Dunkirk the personal edge because its cinematography affected me far more potently.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Abacus: Small Enough to Jail
Faces Places
Icarus
Last Men in Aleppo
Strong Island
Will Win: Faces Places
Should Win: Faces Places
Did Win: Icarus
I don't know what Icarus is about. I never watch documentaries. I should probably watch more documentaries.
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Edith+Eddie
Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405
Heroin(e)
Knife Skills
Traffic Stop
Will Win: Traffic Stop
Should Win: N/A
Did Win: Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405
I tried to pick the candidate with the least awful title, but it was difficult.
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
DeKalb Elementary
The Eleven O'Clock
My Nephew Emmett
The Silent Child
Watu Wote/All of Us
Will Win: DeKalb Elementary
Should Win: N/A
Did Win: The Silent Child
I gather that DeKalb Elementary is about a school shooting, so I went with what was topical.
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
A Fantastic Woman
The Insult
Loveless
On Body and Soul
The Square
Will Win: The Square
Should Win: N/A
Did Win: A Fantastic Woman
I'm disappointed to say that I didn't catch any of the foreign language film candidates this year. I figured The Square would win because a friend of mine found it insufferably pretentious.
FILM EDITING
Baby Driver, Jonathan Amos, Paul Machliss
Dunkirk, Lee Smith
I, Tonya, Tatiana S. Riegel
The Shape of Water, Sidney Wolinsky
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Jon Gregory
Will Win: Dunkirk
Should Win: Dunkirk
Did Win: Dunkirk
From a purely technique-oriented standpoint, Baby Driver deserves this win. The editing team had to do unprecedented work to achieve Wright's vision, like working with a mobile editing bay during the film shoot. But again, Dunkirk's editing must be considered the most successful because it was far and away the most impactful.
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Will Win: Dunkirk
Should Win: Dunkirk
Did Win: Dunkirk
When in doubt, go with the war movie. Especially the war movie for which the sound editing was integral to the central conceit.
SOUND MIXING
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Will Win: Dunkirk
Should Win: Dunkirk
Did Win: Dunkirk
See above. It'd be weird if the winners of these two categories were different.
PRODUCTION DESIGN
Beauty and the Beast
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Will Win: Blade Runner 2049
Should Win: Blade Runner 2049
Did Win: The Shape of Water
I went back and forth on this prediction, and I guess The Shape of Water was the safer pick. I'm happy with its win though, the grody yet fantastical design of that film was integral to shaping its spirit.
ORIGINAL SCORE
Dunkirk, Hans Zimmer
Phantom Thread, Jonny Greenwood
The Shape of Water, Alexandre Desplat
Star Wars: The Last Jedi, John Williams
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Carter Burwell
Will Win: The Shape of Water
Should Win: Dunkirk
Did Win: The Shape of Water
I doubt the academy could ever award Zimmer for this sort of work, but the score of Dunkirk accomplishes the herculean task of being an ever-present, ever-shifting drone that manages to keep the film's tension taut for the entirety of its runtime.
ORIGINAL SONG
"Mighty River" from Mudbound
"Mystery of Love" from Call Me by Your Name
"Remember Me" from Coco
"Stand up for Something" from Marshall
"This Is Me" from The Greatest Showman
Will Win: "This Is Me"
Should Win: "Mystery of Love"
Did Win: "Remember Me"
I went full cynic with this prediction, and I was not rewarded. Yet I am still left wondering how you could not give Sufjan the award for anything that he's nominated for.
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Darkest Hour
Victoria and Abdul
Wonder
Will Win: Darkest Hour
Should Win: Darkest Hour
Did Win: Darkest Hour
See above comments re: slapping a bunch of make-up on a famous white dude.
COSTUME DESIGN
Beauty and the Beast
Darkest Hour
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Victoria and Abdul
Will Win: Phantom Thread
Should Win: Phantom Thread
Did Win: Phantom Thread
There is no way the Academy passes up the obvious choice of giving Costume Design to the movie about designing costumes.
VISUAL EFFECTS
Blade Runner 2049
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
Kong: Skull Island
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
War for the Planet of the Apes
Will Win: Blade Runner 2049
Should Win: War for the Planet of the Apes
Did Win: Blade Runner 2049
In just about every way, the new Planet of the Apes trilogy is underappreciated, not least of which is its incredible motion capture visual effects. This is one of the few blockbuster franchises that has unlocked the secret that the best CGI is used for storytelling rather than spectacle.
- - -
Relevant Reviews: Dunkirk, Get Out, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Kong: Skull Island, Lady Bird, The Lego Batman Movie, Logan, The Shape of Water, Star Wars: Episode VIII - The Last Jedi
No comments:
Post a Comment