Below are the results, and some discussion about each category.
BEST PICTURE
Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
Will Win: La La Land
Should Win: Moonlight
Did Win: La La Land
Welp, no surprises here. The movie that does a pretty good job wanking off Hollywood history beats out the progressive-experimental-subversive-semimasterpiece.
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Wait
Obviously I'm writing this during the live feed because it turns out Moonlight actually won best picture even though they announced La La Land because they gave Warren Beatty the wrong goddamn card. Are you kidding me?
I'm so pleased about this ridiculous turn of events; it seems grandly metaphorical.
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences
Will Win: Casey Affleck
Should Win: Casey Affleck
Did Win: Casey Affleck
If it weren't for Denzel this would have been a lock. They kind of struck out on this category. I mean, I didn't see Hacksaw Ridge, but if you're going to nominate Andrew Garfield how is it not for Silence?? Anyway, Affleck deserves this win. His work in Manchester is unreal.
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
Will Win: Natalie Portman
Should Win: Isabelle Huppert
Did Win: Emma Stone
I guess the Portman prediction was a bit of wishful thinking, as Jackie has tanked all the other awards shows so far. I wonder why it fell so far off the radar. Emma Stone is good in La La Land, but the requirements of her role are a bit... pedestrian, I guess? At least compared to the incredible balancing act of Portman in Jackie, or the indescribably monumental task of Huppert in Elle. Stone did kill that Audition song though.
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel, Lion
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
Will Win: Lucas Hedges
Should Win: Mahershala Ali
Did Win: Mahershala Ali
Bad on me for this one. My Hedges prediction was a bit of a long shot, but he carries so much of Manchester on his shoulders. Mahershala Ali is always a captivating presence, and he was perfect in Moonlight, so the voters made the best of an underwhelming category. Though I do want to give Michael Shannon props for being the best part of a rough movie.
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
Will Win: Viola Davis
Should Win: Viola Davis
Did Win: Viola Davis
Another particularly weak category. Davis was a lock to walk away with this one.
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
The Red Turtle
Zootopia
Will Win: Moana
Should Win: Kubo and the Two Strings
Did Win: Zootopia
Picking between Moana and Zootopia was probably my toughest choice, and it's one that I feel silly about in retrospect. Of course Zootopia was going to take the award. It got a whole lot more buzz, and it tapped directly into Current Events for its thematic resonance. I mourn Kubo, but I have a feeling that my preferred winner would have been The Red Turtle, had I gotten around to seeing it.
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Arrival
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Silence
Will Win: La La Land
Should Win: Arrival
Did Win: La La Land - Linus Sandgren
La La Land's cinematography was great, but real talk it's either the fourth or fifth best candidate here. I can't say which because I haven't seen Lion yet. Nice to see Silence sneak in with a nomination here. The trouble with being a long time master of the craft, as Scorsese and Spielberg must be aware, is that it's damned hard to get recognition when you churn out yet another masterpiece.
COSTUME DESIGN
Allied
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
Jackie
La La Land
Will Win: La La Land
Should Win: Jackie
Did Win: Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them - Colleen Atwood
Never bet against the period piece--unless there's a fantasy period piece in the mix. Lesson learned.
DIRECTING
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
Will Win: La La Land
Should Win: Moonlight
Did Win: La La Land - Damien Chazelle
I can't fault Chazelle this win. The script for La La Land is kind of all over the place, so a great deal of credit for its success lies in the excellent direction.
DOCUMENTARY (FEATURE)
Fire at Sea
I Am Not Your Negro
Life, Animated
O.J.: Made in America
13th
Will Win: O.J.: Made in America
Should Win: O.J.: Made in America
Did Win: O.J.: Made in America
This maybe surpassed Viola Davis for the lockiest lock of the night. It seems like a strong set of contenders, but a documentary doesn't make this much of an impact without winning the Oscar. Hell, even the fact that it isn't a movie didn't disqualify it.
DOCUMENTARY (SHORT SUBJECT)
Extremis
4.1 Miles
Joe's Violin
Watani: My Homeland
The White Helmets
Will Win: The White Helmets
Should Win: N/A
Did Win: The White Helmets
This is where I admit to not having seen any of the candidates.
FILM EDITING
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Moonlight
Will Win: Moonlight
Should Win: Arrival
Did Win: Hacksaw Ridge - John Gilbert
I am indignant, though I will try to curb the indignation because having not seen Hacksaw Ridge, it's not entirely fair. This was one of the bigger upsets of the night. I would have pegged Hacksaw as fourth most likely to take editing. La La Land was the darling, and editing is central to the boundary-pushing experimental conceits of both Moonlight and Arrival. Seriously, how do you not pick the movie that has a plot twist, a story premise, and a grand metaphysical truth all hinging upon the masterful editing? I guess Mel Gibson's star is on the rise.
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Land of Mine
A Man Called Ove
The Salesman
Tanna
Toni Erdmann
Will Win: Toni Erdmann
Should Win: Toni Erdmann
Did Win: The Salesman
I had assumed Toni Erdmann would take it because I've heard from several sources I respect that Toni Erdmann is one of the best films of the year, full stop. But as I understand it, The Salesman is topical, so there you have it.
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
A Man Called Ove
Star Trek Beyond
Suicide Squad
Will Win: Star Trek Beyond
Should Win: Star Trek Beyond
Did Win: Suicide Squad - Giorgio Gregorini, Alessandro Bertolazzi, Christopher Allen Nelson
Welcome to the world in which Warner Bros.' smelly discharge is now an Oscar winner.
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)
Jackie
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Passengers
Will Win: La La Land
Should Win: Jackie
Did Win: La La Land - Justin Hurwitz
When an awards frontrunner is also a musical, obviously pick the musical for original score. That being said, the musical work on Jackie is far superior. It's flat out one of the best scores I've ever heard, right up there with Cliff Martinez's unnominated work on The Neon Demon this year.
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)
"Audition (The Fools Who Dream)" from La La Land
"Can't Stop the Feeling" from Trolls
"City of Stars" from La La Land
"The Empty Chair" from Jim: The James Foley Story
"How Far I'll Go" from Moana
Will Win: "City of Stars"
Should Win: "Audition (The Fools Who Dream)"
Did Win: "City of Stars" - Justin Hurwitz, Ryan Gosling
"Audition" is clearly the better song, but Hollywood was hardly not going to reward a song about how wonderful Hollywood is.
PRODUCTION DESIGN
Arrival
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Hail, Caesar!
La La Land
Passengers
Will Win: La La Land
Should Win: Hail, Caesar!
Did Win: La La Land - David Wasco, Sandy Reynolds-Wasco
Can't be too mad about this one.
SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)
Blind Vaysha
Borrowed Time
Pear Cider and Cigarettes
Pearl
Piper
Will Win: Piper
Should Win: Pearl
Did Win: Piper
I've only seen Piper and Pearl, and I picked Pearl even though it's not much more that a very well-framed bit of sentimentalism because I've had a bone to pick with Pixar recently. With the exception of Inside Out, their output has been middling, and it's sad. Piper is certainly a beautiful little story, but it also functions as a tech demo like so much of their recent work. Based on the trailers for the other three shorts, I've got a feeling Piper would have ended up being my least favorite of the bunch. Hell, Piper's still great though.
SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)
Ennemis Intérieurs
La Femme et le TGV
Silent Nights
Sing
Timecode
Will Win: Sing
Should Win: N/A
Did Win: Sing
This is the part where I brag about going 3/3 on the short film award predictions despite having seen hardly any of them.
SOUND EDITING
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Sully
Will Win: La La Land
Should Win: Arrival
Did Win: Arrival - Sylvain Bellemare
Thank the ever-loving deity that Arrival got something out of the academy awards. I expected La La Land to sweep the sound categories, but good on the voters for realizing that having people sing in a movie doesn't mean the technical work is good.
SOUND MIXING
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi
Will Win: La La Land
Should Win: Arrival
Did Win: Hacksaw Ridge - Andy Wright, Peter Grace, Robert Mackenzie, Kevin O'Connell
This category is all over the place. I thought La La Land would win, I thought Arrival should win, Hacksaw Ridge did win, and I've heard that 13 Hours ought to have won. Let's just give good job high fives all around.
VISUAL EFFECTS
Deepwater Horizon
Doctor Strange
The Jungle Book
Kubo and the Two Strings
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Will Win: The Jungle Book
Should Win: Kubo and the Two Strings
Did Win: The Jungle Book - Robert Legato, Adam Valdez, Andrew R. Jones, Dan Lemmon
I stubbornly pulled for Kubo here, but the work on The Jungle Book is unassailable. Actually, this may have been the overall strongest category of the evening. Incredible stuff from every team involved.
WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
Arrival
Fences
Hidden Figures
Lion
Moonlight
Will Win: Moonlight
Should Win: Arrival
Did Win: Moonlight - Barry Jenkins, Tarell Alvin McCraney
Despite my love for Arrival, I am absolutely not mad about this one. This seems like an opportune moment to mention that the presence of Hidden Figures on this list is an affront to the craft of writing.
WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
Hell or High Water
La La Land
The Lobster
Manchester by the Sea
20th Century Women
Will Win: La La Land
Should Win: The Lobster
Did Win: Manchester by the Sea - Kenneth Lonergan
Bit of a surprise here, as Manchester was such a performance-driven movie. But there is an art to subtlety in language, and Lonergan certainly wields it.
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Relevant Reviews: La La Land, Manchester by the Sea, Arrival, Jackie, Nocturnal Animals, Hidden Figures, Zootopia, Kubo and the Two Strings, Hail, Caesar!, Piper, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, Doctor Strange, The Jungle Book, The Lobster
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